Welcome to the Midterms Minute 2022!
Today’s focus is on toss-up House races in California, New York, and Ohio, and open or new seats that are leaning Democrat or Republican.
The rating information below is based on Cook Political Report House ratings as of October 4th, 2022.
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HOLD! CA-13 - OPEN - This used to be Rep. Barbara Lee's district, but now she's running for CA-12 after redistricting. Republicans see this shuffle as a good chance to pick up a seat. The Democrat is state congressperson Adam Gray, a moderate on many issues, but whose voting record shows that he is in favor of abortion rights and expanding access. The Republican is John Duerte, a businessman and "school choice" advocate whose priorities include "securing the border" and squashing the defund-the-police movement. Both are focused on water rights for farmers.
FLIP! CA-22 - (R Incumbent) - Republican Rep. David Valadao was representing the 21st district, but after redistricting he's running for the 22nd which includes most of his former district. The Democrat in this race is state assemblyperson Rudy Salas, who is focused on reducing drug prices and expanding access to healthcare, including mental healthcare. This used to be a "leaning D" race, but is now a toss-up.
FLIP! CA-27 - (R Incumbent) - Politico calls Republican Rep. Mike Garcia the most vulnerable GOP candidate in the country since his district in north Los Angeles voted for Biden by 13 points. The Democrat in this race is state assemblyperson Christy Smith, who is focusing on expanding affordable healthcare, improving education, and fighting climate change.
NEW YORK Toss-Ups:
HOLD! NY-19 - OPEN (former D Incumbent) - Redistricting moved the Democratic incumbent. The Democrat, Josh Riley, is defending his seat after a special election. He is focusing his campaign on strengthening democracy, building an equitable economy, inflation, and abortion rights. His opponent is Republican is Marcus Molinaro. The redistricting appears to slightly favor Democrats, but it's still going to be close.
FLIP! NY-22 - OPEN (former R incumbent) - The Republican incumbent is now running for NY-24 due to redistricting. The Democrat is Francis Conole, who is focusing on healthcare, the economy, and the environment - and wants to codify Roe v. Wade. The Republican candidate is Brandon Williams, a self-proclaimed "outsider" and veteran focused on "restoring rule of law".
OHIO Toss Ups:
HOLD! OH-13 - Open - (Former D Incumbent) - This was Tim Ryan's seat, but now he's running for Senate. The Democrat is Emilia Sykes, who is prioritizing jobs and rising costs, and healthcare. The Republican candidate is Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, a former Trump campaign staffer (both times) and television commentator - that's really all you need to know.
FLIP! OH-01 - (R Incumbent) - Democrat Greg Landsman is focusing on lowering costs for families (inflation) and jobs and the economy, and is pro reproductive rights. He is hoping to oust the Republican incumbent, Steve Chabot.
Also, in Ohio, check out the Open Senate race between Democrat Rep. Tim Ryan and Trump Republican Jim Vance, rated "Leaning R".
Open/Vacant/New Races Leaning Democrat
IL-13 - Open - (D) Delia Ramirez vs. (R) Justin Burau
MI-03 - Open - Four candidates: (Working Class Party) Louis Palus | (D) Hillary Scholten | (R) John Gibbs | (Libertarian) Jamie Lewis
NC-01 - Open - (D) Donald Davis vs. (R) Sandy Smith
NY-03 - Open - (D/Working Families Party) Robert Zimmerman vs. (R) George Devolder-Santos
OR-04 - Open - (D/ Working Families Party) Val Hoyle vs. (R) Alex Skarlatos vs. (Constitution Party) Jim Howard vs. (Independent Party/Libertarian) Levi Leatherberry vs. (Pacific Green Party) Michael Beilstein
OR-06 - New Seat - (Democratic Party, Working Families Party, Independent Party) Andrea Salinas vs. (R) Mike Erickson vs. (Consitution Party) Larry McFarland
Open/Vacant/New Races Leaning Republican
CA-03 - Open - (D) Kermit Jones vs. (R) Kevin Kiley
FL-07 - Open - (D) Karen Green vs. (R) Cory Mills vs. a write-in
FL-13 - Vacant - (D) Eric Lynne vs. (R) Anna Paulina Luna vs. (Libertarian) Frank Craft vs. other write-ins
FL-15 - New Seat - (D) Alan Cohn vs. (R) Laurel Lee ( a former Gov. Rick Scott judicial appointee)
MI-10 - Open - (Working Class Party) Andrea Kirby vs. (D) Carl Marlinga vs. (R) John James vs (Libertarian) Mike Saliba vs.
MT-01 - New Seat - (D) Monica Tranel vs. (R) Ryan Zike (big coffers and getting millions from GOP in the final weeks) vs. (Libertarian) John Lamb
Remember: Voting is not enough. Check out our curated GOTV resources.